March 06, 2016

Gulf War Redux: Iraq 1991 Equals Turkey 2016?

As Mark Twain astutely observed: "History may not always repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme"! Are we about to witness the latest example of this repetitive rhyming with the current Syrian conflict? To start, let's recount the sequence of events surrounding the first Gulf War a little over 25 years ago. Following ongoing provocations (illegal slant drilling for oil) & after getting assurances from the US that it would not intervene, Iraq invaded its smaller neighbor to the South, Kuwait on August 2, 1990. Five months later, an international coalition led by the US launched an offensive on January 17, 1991, going on to successfully retake Kuwait, the combat phase of operations ending on February 28, 1991, when the Soviet Cold War ally was defeated - ceasing hostilities before entering the capital, Baghdad!

Fast forward 25 years to September 30, 2015 - Russia kicks off a campaign of airstrikes against ISIS (created, armed, & funded by Western allies, blazing a long trail of destruction across Iraq and Syria)! In a surprise move that caught the Western alliance off-guard and likely forestalled a Syrian invasion, planned as a preparatory step to an assault on Iran to continue its strategy of encirclement of Russia, they soon had ISIS forces in retreat, a task the pretend allied bombing seemed incapable of achieving! Coming midway between both operations was the Iraq War, post-9/11 in response to cooked evidence of non-existent WMD, launched on Mar 20, 2003 (4½ months prior to the mid-point of the war cycle) which lasted over 8 years and left a country so unstable as to be the perfect breeding ground for ISIS!

The two campaigns were starkly different - so much so that one could refer to them as mirror images! Whilst the first Gulf War came about when a US ally was invaded by a former Soviet Cold War ally, after being misled by the US that it would not intervene, the Russian bombing campaign only began after it had become obvious to all that ISIS was simply a tool by the West for regime change in Syria, as part of an ongoing strategy following Afghanistan & Iraq to create a domino effect leading to Iran. Failure to act would have meant a significant shift in the balance of Mid-East power, Russia the loser. Having almost certainly forestalled an invasion by Turkey to the North, & Saudi Arabia to the South, (both key regional US allies), the key question that remains is whether such an invasion will proceed!

Viewing all these conflicts as separate & disconnected would be a serious error - fact is, the false flag attacks of 9/11 & 7/7, alongside the various Mid-East operations all form part of a master plan geared to advancing US hegemony worldwide laid out in the neocon Project for the New American Century! Though it took some time, a resurgent Russia and a powerful China have awakened to the new reality -will the historical powerbrokers in the West abandon longstanding plans or will they risk world war?

Adding to the complexity of the situation is that opposing forces belong to either Sunni or Shia sects, historical enemies, & that the PNAC plan would have meant the Sunni factions dominating the Shia! Another factor (ignored by the media) is Obama's religion - though ostensibly Christian, there are strong indications (verbal slips, upbringing) that he is a Muslim - if so, indications suggest he is Shia. Taqiyya - a Shia doctrine justifying deception (pretending another faith) - is frowned upon by Sunnis!

A previous article highlighted the cycle (unearthed by Martin Armstrong) governing major conflicts from the early 20th century until today - 25 years, 1 month, 2 weeks. Applying this cycle to the first Gulf War (August 2, 1990) takes us to September 16, 2015 - a mere 2 weeks before hostilities started! Continuing the conflict cycles model to the offensive launched by coalition forces to drive out Iraq on January 17, 1991 we arrive at March 2, 2016, adding the two extra weeks takes us to March 16, 2016!

Meanwhile, despite giving assurances that the West wants no war with Russia (& potentially, China), there continues to be a build-up of troops & heavy weaponry in South Turkey & North Saudi Arabia, along with reports of a surreptitious gathering of military manpower - posing as tourists - in Lebanon!

So if history doesn't exactly repeat, are we about to see the latest example of it nonetheless rhyming? Thirteen years after the last wrongful invasion of a Mid-East country which neither possessed WMD nor played any role in 9/11, are we about to witness a rerun by a nearby power that is destined to fail?

Is Obama a Muslim of the Shia sect, and if so is he about to mislead a key ally Turkey, into launching an invasion in order to rid himself of a Sunni opponent Erdogan, by 'feeding him to the Russian bear'? Will Saudi Arabia follow suit, resulting in a major power shift from Sunni to Shia in the Middle East?


Realizing a massive invasion of Syria would provoke a Tactical Nuclear response by Russia, the Saudis and Turks have changed strategy: neutralize Russia first, then take Damascus in one fell swoop, with troops sent covertly as tourists inside nearby countries!
In a staggering and cunning change, Saudi Arabia and its “Arab Coalition against Terrorism” as well as Turkey have changed plans from an initial, massive invasion from Saudi Arabia, through Jordan to Syria. Once that plan for a massive invasion became obvious, and the tactical nuclear response to such an invasion became inevitable, the Saudis and Turks had to switch gears and form a new plan.
They have now commenced that new plan – an order of magnitude more cunning and perhaps even MORE outrageous – to neutralize Russia (inside Syria) first, then take Syria by directly attacking Damascus.
The map below gives you a layout of the area involved:


Hints that something was afoot came this morning when Saudi Arabia (SA) publicly warned its citizens not to travel to Lebanon and told any Saudis inside Lebanon to leave immediately.  About two hours later, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) told its citizens the exact same thing.
SuperStation95 made a quick inquiry to our sources in the Pentagon and they confirm that days ago, Turkey, SA and other Arab Coalition countries ordered re-deployment of TurkSubBosporussubmarines, into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, some told to take up station west of Latakia, Syria and others told to take up station southwest of Tartus, Syria.  Both those places are the location of Russian bases and troops inside Syria.
It is widely believed the submarines are targeting Russian ships which are equipped with the advanced S-300 or S-400 anti-missile system.
Upon receiving an attack order, those submarines will fire torpedoes at the Russian vessels patrolling the Mediterranean near Syria  AND FIRE AT SHIPS DOCKED IN TARTUS AND LATAKIA, with the intent of disabling (not sinking) them, to neutralize the anti-aircraft capabilities of those ships.
Since the Turks, Saudis and other nations in the “Arab Coalition against Terrorism” ALL have submarines, there will be no way to tell which nation is responsible for attacking the Russian ships.  All of them will have “plausible deniability!”
Once the ships on patrol and those in port are disabled, there will be a gaping hole in the air defenses protecting Syria.  At that time, warplanes from Incirlick Air Base in Turkey will commence attacks into Syria, through that air defense gap, and attack Damascus directly.


In preparation for this new plan, for over a week, Thousands of troops from the “Arab Coalition against Terrorism” have been quietly traveling in small groups, as “Tourists” into LEBANON, as well as to Amman, Jordan.  
It is now also known that the Israeli government has been quietly working with Jordan and Saudi Arabia to prepare for a large force of Arab troops to USE THE GOLAN HEIGHTS to travel north into Syria, to attack Damascus and topple its President Assad.
Our source in the Pentagon told us “It is in Israel’s interest to overthrow Assad because in doing so, they get to keep the Golan Heights which for years, they have only occupied.”  By working with Arabs to achieve this purpose, Israel is generating good will inside Arab nations with the goal of long-term peace and stability!  The fact Israel has authorized armed Arab troops to move, en masse, through the Golan Heights, is a risk for Israel, but one they believe will foster trust with the (new) Syrian regime.  (By deception they shall wage war.)
Cargo ships carrying container loads of weapons and supplies, have been traveling up the Suez Canal, docking in Lebanon, and unloading containers of weapons and ammunition to warehouses outside Beirut.
The covert troops are then called to come to the various warehouses to pick up the weapons they will use.


It is only about 60 miles from Beirut, Lebanon, to Damascus, Syria. It is about 80 miles from the Golan Heights to Damascus.
According to our sources, there are already over thirty thousand troops covertly inside Lebanon and the number is growing by the hour.
In addition, we are told there are over fifty-thousand troops inside Jordan, filling hotels and apartments throughout the Amman area.
Of course, there are still about 150,000 troops in northern Saudi Arabia for their “military exercise.”
Before the attacks commence, Turkey will move troops across the Syrian Border near Azaz to commence the fighting and draw attention to this area; an area where a Turkish invasion has been expected for weeks. As this fighting gets severe, troops in Lebanon, Jordan and Saudi Arabia will be quietly on the move, north, into Jordan.
According to our sources, the covert troops will move from Amman, Jordan, into the Golan Heights, with orders to attack Damascus from the SOUTH.  Their colleagues from Beirut will move to attack Damascus from the WEST.  At the same time, the remaining 150,000 troops, still participating in the “exercise” in Saudi Arabia which began last week, will move  from Saudi Arabia into Jordan, crossing into Syria to strike Damascus from the EAST, perhaps branching off prior to arrival to also attack from the NORTH.  The blue lines on the map below show the ground invasions:
Due to the significant land distance involved, each segment of troops will be required to begin moving at different times.  This will be the only alert/advance warning the Syrians and Russians will have that the attack is on.


Within the last 24 hours, France – who opposes Russia’s participation in Syria — suddenly ordered its only aircraft Carrier, the Charles DeGaulle and its Battle Group, to proceed “forthwith”from the Persian Gulf to the eastern Mediterranean. Right where the Turkish subs were sent to decapitate the Russian fleet.
This will put French Naval Power right in the fighting, and French Air Power close enough to Latakia and Tartus to make sure the Russian s-300 and s-400 systems are knocked out, allowing the Turks coming from Incirlick air base to get through to Damascus.


It is now clear that the “cease fire” being negotiated by the US with Russia/Syria, was designed merely to be a delaying tactic, to allow for the re-positioning of SA/UAE and Turk forces!  The cease fire has been a ruse, a deception, to allow the aggressors time to reposition and redeploy in a way that prevents Russia from using Tactical nukes AND overwhelms Russian defenses, allowing a swift decapitation strike against Damascus.
Unless the Russians, who have been acting in good faith and ardently seeking solutions to the Syria issue, prepare (and prepare fast) they will be totally overwhelmed in a manner against which they cannot use nukes.  Russia will lose Syria and be humiliated on the world stage for all to see.
At that point, Russia will be given a choice:
  • Take your losses, push back from the table, call it a day and go home, OR;
  • Engage in massive full-scale war to save a country (Syria) that has already been conquered.
It would be a crushing defeat for the Russians, who did everything according to International Law, but were defeated by the unimaginable treachery of those in the US, UK, France and the “Arab Coalition against Terrorism.”
Unless Russia is prepared to react by sinking the Turkish subs at the first torpedo, or makes other arrangements to protect their s-300 or s-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to prevent a gaping hole, or perhaps to cross into Turkey from Georgia and Armenia, so as to derail the Turks, all will be lost.
UPDATE 4:25 PM Eastern US Time — Bahrain has just announced its citizens should not travel to Lebanon and any who are already there should leave.  They now join Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates who issued same warnings earlier today . . . .
Last modified on Tuesday, 23 February 2016 16:26

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